“CODA,” meanwhile, has shot solidly into second place at +110, or a 48% implied probability. That’s a drop in implied probability from 71% to 57%. “Dog,” until recently a heavy favorite at -250 at, for instance,, has fallen to -140 in the final days before the ceremony. The PGA doesn’t have a great rate of correlation with the best-picture Oscar (only 67% lifetime, and 65% in the last 10 years, counting the 2013 tie between “Gravity” and eventual Oscar winner “12 Years a Slave”), but following that win, the acting awards and a number of writing prizes, bettors have taken notice. After the Round 3.1 BuzzMeter updates, the American adaptation of the French “La Famille Bélier” not only took a number of high-profile writing prizes, but the PGA award. “CODA” makes a huge jump following its series of wins on the circuit including the SAG ensemble award, from No. Unless the bias against streamers runs really deep, Jane Campion’s western will win.” ![]() As panelist Glenn Whipp says, “ ‘The Power of the Dog’ led the field with 12 nominations. Jane Campion’s noirish investigation of toxic masculinity led all movies with 12 Oscar nominations, including receiving nods in every category the BuzzMeter predicted it would - even adding one to that list (Jesse Plemons’ supporting-actor nod). Kenneth Branagh’s “ Belfast” and Sian Heder’s “ CODA” have both closed the gap considerably, though “Dog” did collect the award at both the BAFTAs and the CCAs. ![]() “ The Power of the Dog” is still the leader of the pack, but no longer by consensus - and its pursuers are breathing down its neck.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |